According to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study released in The Lancet and discussed at the World Health Summit in Berlin, worldwide death rates have declined, yet the decline is not shared by younger people and health gaps are widening.
Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) now make up almost two‑thirds of all deaths and illnesses worldwide, with ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes being the leading causes. Researchers estimate that close to half of every death and disability could be avoided by addressing key risk factors such as high blood sugar and high body mass index (BMI).
"The rapid growth of the aging global population and changing risk profiles have ushered in a new era of health challenges," said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. "The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a clear warning, urging governments and health leaders to act swiftly and strategically against the disturbing trends reshaping public health."
Dr. Murray’s IHME team, together with a GBD Collaborator Network of 16,500 scientists, gathered and analyzed data to generate estimates for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors across age and sex, covering global, regional, and national levels for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational sites from 1990 to 2023. This makes the GBD the most exhaustive attempt to quantify health loss.
The latest version drew on over 310,000 data sources, 30 % of which were new. It incorporated 1,211 location‑years of provisional all‑age vital registration data that were previously unused, providing more timely information. The study’s peer‑reviewed summaries address three fundamental areas: demographic analysis, causes of death, and the burden of disease, injury, and risk.
Even with population growth and aging, the 2023 age‑standardized global mortality rate has fallen 67 % since 1950, and every country recorded a decline. Global life expectancy has returned to pre‑pandemic levels, standing at 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men—over 20 years higher than in 1950. Still, stark geographic disparities persist, with life expectancy ranging from 83 years in high‑income regions to just 62 years in sub‑Saharan Africa.
Among young people, the sharpest rise in deaths was observed in the 20‑to‑39 age group in high‑income North America between 2011 and 2023, largely attributable to suicide, drug overdose, and heavy alcohol consumption. The same years saw increased deaths among those aged 5‑19 in Eastern Europe, high‑income North America, and the Caribbean.
Infant mortality remained the category with the most significant decline over the entire study period. From 2011 to 2023, East Asia recorded the largest reduction—a 68 % fall in under‑5 mortality—thanks to improved nutrition, vaccination coverage, and stronger health systems.
Modeling advancements in the 2023 GBD study indicate that mortality among 5‑to‑14‑year‑olds in sub‑Saharan Africa from 1950 to 2021 was higher than previously estimated, driven by respiratory infections, tuberculosis, other infectious diseases, and unintentional injuries. New calculations also reveal that mortality among women aged 15‑29 in sub‑Saharan Africa was 61 % higher than earlier estimates, mainly due to maternal deaths, road injuries, and meningitis.
Causes of death are shifting from infections to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), posing new global challenges, especially for low‑income countries. After leading deaths in 2021, COVID‑19 fell to 20th place in 2023, returning ischemic heart disease and stroke to the top spots, followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower‑respiratory infections, and neonatal disorders.